The superconfiance effect, what is it

The super -confidence effect is a well -established bias in which the subjective trust of a person in their judgments It is reliably greater than the objective precision of these judgments, especially when trust is relatively high.

Throughout research literature, excess confidence has been defined in three different ways. Over -care of the real performance of one; on placing one in relation to others and on precision in expressing unjustified certainty in the accuracy of their own beliefs.

The most common way in which excess confidence has been studied is asking people how sure they are of the specific beliefs they have or the answers they provide. The data shows that trust systematically exceeds precision, which implies that people are safer than they deserve to be correct. Hence The key finding is that trust exceeds precision provided that the subject answers difficult questions about an unknown theme.

The German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer criticizes Kahneman, arguing that confidence can be an illusion, and introduces a different method to measure excessive trust. In addition to asking for the security that people had after answering each question, at the end of the exercise they were asked how many questions they believed they had been successful, in order to compare the subjective frequency with the real frequency. By relating trusted judgments to the percentage of success, an envelope effect was evidenced. But in the comparison between frequencies almost the bias disappeared, suggesting that the way to formulate the question altered the result.

Content

• Overconfidence. Meaning
• Guys
  • 1. On estimation
  • 2. ILLUSION OF CONTROL
  • 3. Planning fallacy
• Causes of the Superconfianity Effect
  • 1. Self -service bias
  • 2. Confirmation bias
  • 3. Retrospective bias
  • 4. Illusion of validity
  • 5. Illusion of control
• How does the Superconfianity Effect bias work?
• How excess confidence develops?
  • Greater risks
  • Victory
  • Emotional relationships
  • How to improve the superconfidence effect at work?
• How to avoid the superconfidence effect?
• Biases that influence our way of seeing the world and making decisions
  • 1. Blind Point Prejudice
  • 2. Confirmation bias
  • 3. Results bias
  • 4. Overinformation bias

Overconfidence. Meaning

The effect of super -confidence is the tendency to overestimate or exaggerate our own ability to satisfactorily advance a certain task, Instead of being objective and reasonable.  It is also known as superiority bias.

Guys

1. On estimation

A manifestation of the effect of superconfiance is the tendency to overestimate the position in a dimension of judgment or performance. This subsection of excess confidence focuses on the certainty one feels in their own ability, control level or possibility of success.

2. ILLUSION OF CONTROL

The illusion of control describes the tendency of individuals to behave as if they could have any control when they actually have none. When they have a lot of control, people tend to underestimate how much control they have.

3. Planning fallacy

The planning fallacy describes the tendency of people to overestimate their work pace or underestimate the time that things will take them. It is stronger for long or complicated activities, and disappears or is invested for simple tasks that are completely completed.

Causes of the Superconfianity Effect

1. Self -service bias

With self -service bias it happens when people attribute their successes to their own skills, But they blame their failures to external factors such as bad luck, raising their self -esteem.

2. Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias It consists in seeking evidence to confirm an idea that you have and ignore the information that contradicts it.

3. Retrospective bias

Retrospective bias is the ability to predict the future, and have expression of time always knew, when the event was hardly predicted.

4. Illusion of validity

The illusion of validity is to have a feeling of certainty in front of a trial issued weighing to have evidence that the foreseeing capacity is void.

5. Illusion of control

Here is about the tendency of human beings to believe that they can control or modify the results in which it clearly has no influence.

How does the Superconfianity Effect bias work?

The super -confidence effect can generate trial errors in decision making Because it can lead to overestimate or underestimate the abilities of others, inappropriately evaluate the difficulty of a task, or be adverse to possible risks.

How excess confidence develops?

Excess confidence develops through the following methods.

Greater risks

A study by Dominic Johnson and James Fowler of the University of Edinburgh and the University of California, San Diego, claim that Excess confidence increases according to the magnitude of the lack of certainty. Therefore, the higher the risk, the more self -confidence the subject should develop.

Victory

When we get what we want, we confirm the certainty of our actions or beliefs. Before observing the circumstances that favored success, that victory is attributed to our capacities.

Emotional relationships

For Man, sports psychologist, indicates that this state can be reflected by the comments of family, friends or partners who are responsible for exalting the qualities of the person.

How to improve the superconfidence effect at work?

To improve excess confidence at work you have to have very clear policies and procedures, It is knowing how to delimit the rights and obligations between employees and bosses, ensuring that there is an organizational culture of respect for staff and the position.

How to avoid the superconfidence effect?

If you want to avoid excess confidence, it is time for you to learn something new. Make some sport, you start a language classes or you can even take a kitchen course to help you control excess confidence in yourself. When we learn something we have ever done, the feeling of superiority is low or even null, which will allow you to reach the highest from the lowest.

Subconfiance bias, what is it?

Biases that influence our way of seeing the world and making decisions

1. Blind Point Prejudice

This bias was defined in 2022 by psychologists Emily Prinin, Daniel and. Lin and Lee Ross and consists of thinking that you have no prejudices and that your way of acting and making decisions is less biased than that of others.

2. Confirmation bias

According to this bias, defined in 1960 by P.C. Wason, we tend to pay more attention and give more validity to arguments that agree with our beliefs that contradict it.

3. Results bias

This bias occurs when we decide If a decision made is good or bad according to its results, As Baron and Hershey explain at the Paper "Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation".

4. Overinformation bias

It is the tendency to collect information that we do not need before making a decision, although it does not contribute anything to what we are going to decide. This bias, investigated in 1988 by Baron, Beattie and Hersjey, can lead to the Inaction by overinformation, not to make a decision because we never consider that we have enough information to take it.

Remember that all excesses are bad, but in order to face life, confidence in oneself is necessary, so that it begins to seek your own balance.

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